Oil edges higher as Hormuz ship attacks threaten crude shipments
Oil edged higher as attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz threatened shipments, while US industry data pointed to another drop in stockpiles.
Brent rose above $110 a barrel as Iran’s state-run IRIB News said a supertanker hit a sea mine in Hormuz, without identifying the vessel or when it occurred. West Texas Intermediate was near $99.
In the US, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported US crude inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels last week, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. If confirmed by official data on Wednesday, it would mark a third weekly decline. Gasoline and distillates stockpiles also declined.
The US draws add to signs of “increasingly tight” global supplies and support prices, said Yutaro Nishi, a senior analyst at Rakuten Securities Inc. Prices could climb if there are further supply disruptions around Hormuz, he added.
Global oil inventories are being depleted. Observed stocks were about a half a billion barrels below prewar levels at the end of September, while on-land stocks were at their lowest since at least 2016, the International Energy Agency said in a report earlier this month.
Brent has surged about 80% this year as widening conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine disrupt energy supplies, with refined products climbing even more sharply. Renewed attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure are keeping geopolitical risk elevated even as Persian Gulf flows recover.
In the US, President Donald Trump is seeking to bring down energy prices ahead of next month’s midterm elections. Steps include waiving tariffs linked to Russia’s energy exports, striking a diesel export deal with Moscow and authorizing the sale of sanctioned oil tankers to shipping crude.
Attacks on vessels near Hormuz have jumped to as many as 12 a week from two to four over the summer, Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats said in a note, prompting the bank to raise its forecasts for Dated Brent, a physical benchmark. Oil flows through the waterway remain resilient at about 12 million barrels a day, but are down roughly 4 million barrels a day from the recent peak, they said.
The Islamic Republic’s strikes are increasingly hitting ships’ engine rooms, causing more severe damage than earlier in the conflict and raising risks to energy flows. Non-Iranian crude left the Persian Gulf at a rate of around 9.1 million barrels a day in the first 20 days of this month, preliminary ship-tracking data from Vortexa show, suggesting a slowdown in oil flows through Hormuz. Data may be revised later as more information becomes known.
The pace appears well below the level implied by the US, which said earlier this month that 20 million barrels a day were getting through Hormuz.
Meanwhile, talks aimed at ending the conflict are continuing, but reports that an agreement is close are inaccurate, according to a diplomat involved in negotiations. An earlier unconfirmed report had knocked oil off five-month highs on Tuesday, with Brent at one point falling as much as 3.3% before paring losses.
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