Tshwane is leading the way in SA’s residential property market as the only major metro to record double-digit growth in the average value of properties purchased by first and second-time homebuyers at 10.1% and 14.7% respectively, during H1 2025.

After a prolonged period of slow growth, ooba Home Loans says that Johannesburg has also made a comeback, recording a 5% year-on-year rise in average value of prices purchased over the same period – and narrowing the regional price gap with Tshwane.

Recent data from StatsSA confirms this trend, highlighting renewed momentum across Gauteng’s three major metros, which together account for 47.4% of the national residential sales value. Furthermore, Gauteng’s growing population is a key driver of demand with the province’s population increasing by 6 million between 2002 and 2025, accounting for the lion’s share of SA’s population (at 25.4%) as per StatsSA’s mid-year population estimate.

CEO of the ooba Group, Rhys Dyer, attributes Tshwane’s strong housing performance in part to a significant rise in the average home loan applicant’s monthly gross income, increasing by 15.9% year-on-year to R78 713 in H1 2025.

“As the country’s second-highest earning property buyers, Tshwane trails behind the Western Cape by just R4 165 per month (at R78 713),” he says. “In contrast, Johannesburg recorded a more modest yet meaningful rise in buyer income at 4.1%), bringing the average to R67 736.”

He says the banks have also helped bolster growth in Gauteng by offering further discounts in the prime lending rate. In H1 2025, Tshwane’s pricing improved by 12 basis points compared to year earlier levels, averaging -0.62% below prime during the first half of the year while Johannesburg saw a 6-basis point improvement over the same period, averaging -0.59% below prime.

When looking at Gauteng South and East, he notes this region’s negative house price inflation of -3.3% in H1 2025 has paved the way for greater affordability and accessibility with first-time homebuyers accounting for more than half of all homebuyers in the region (at 52.5%). The region is also home to the youngest average homebuyer nationally – aged 38.8 years.

Tshwane’s first-time homebuyer house price inflation also trumped all regions, recording a 14.7% year-on-year increase in the prices of properties purchased in H1 2025. However, it still has a way to go in attracting first-time buyers with just 38.4% of all applicants purchasing a property for the first time.

“Tshwane trails behind Gauteng South and East (52.5%) and Johannesburg (46.2%) for first-time homebuyers – metros offering strong entry-level demand driven by affordability,” says Dyer, pointing to an average first-time homebuyer purchase price of R1.16 million in Johannesburg and R985 000 in Gauteng South and East versus R1.36 million in Tshwane.

After trailing the Western Cape post-Covid, Gauteng overtook its coastal counterpart in the number of buildings completed during 2024 – a surprising twist given that the Western Cape continues to lead in terms of building plans passed – a key indicator of future building activity.

Despite Ekurhuleni taking the lead in recent years, Tshwane dominated construction activity between 2012 to 2017, while Johannesburg recorded the lowest level of completions in 15 years and continues to lag behind the region’s two other metro housing markets in terms of new plans passed.

A growing number of investors have their sights set on Tshwane. “In H1 2025, 11.2% of applications received from home loan applicants in Tshwane were for buy-to-let properties – a 1.37 percentage point increase compared to the first half of 2024.”

He also highlights an increase in investment demand in Gauteng South and East, with investment applications rising by 1.6 percentage points to 6.3% in H1 2025. “In contrast, investment demand in Johannesburg declined by 1.25 pp to 3.4% during the first half of the year.”