Continuing growth across all retail centre formats is being driven by a strong and increasing desire for human medicine via physical social and community interaction, says Belinda Clur, managing director of Clur International.

The growth, ahead of inflation, is reflected in the Clur Shopping Centre Index for the second quarter of 2025. The index is derived from the Clur Collective, an independent platform built specifically for easy shopping centre analysis and strategy to optimize returns. The platform is an endorsed asset management industry standard and economic indicator tracking over 5.4 million square metres of prime space across South Africa and Namibia.

“Consumer value systems have evolved rapidly, particularly since the Covid-19 pandemic,” says Clur.

“We are now living in the Belief Economy where trusted emotional and human connection has become the new currency. Many elements of this economy are evident in the growth of social impact retail in South Africa, serving hard-pressed communities and acting as catalysts for further development and community growth.”

“At another level, we are seeing the lipstick effect as another element in play – where consumers favour small indulgences to lift their mood when budgets are tight. Health and wellness focused services are in demand, such as hair, nail and body treatments. This signals the need for the personal touch element in a world of screen fatigue.”

Clur says the Q2 2025 national Clur Index for All Centres closed with annualised trading density year-on-year growth of 4.4%, out-performing June 2025’s CPI by 1.4%.

“What is significant is the improved performance of regional centres – those sized 50 000 to 100 000 square metres in lettable area.”

Highest year-on-year growth was shown by community and smaller centres at 5.5%, followed by regional centres at 4.9%. Regional centres showed the highest expansion in growth versus December 2024 of 2.4%, followed by community and smaller centres at 1.8%. All segments expanded, with small regional and super-regional centres showing the smallest expansion of 0.5% and 0.6% versus December 2024, with the All Centres Index expanding by 1.4% for the same period.

The Q2 2025 national Clur Index for All Centres closed at an annualised trading density of R41 679 per square metre. Highest trading densities were shown by the two size extremes of super-regional centres, at R51 012 per square metre, and community and smaller centres at R47 118 per square metre.

Of the three key provinces, the Western Cape was the top performer, with year-on-year annualised trading density growth of 6.2%, outperforming June 2025’s CPI by 3.2%. Gauteng had the next highest year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%. KwaZulu-Natal showed positive year-on-year growth of 2% and is the only key province to under-perform June 2025’s CPI by -1%. As the top performer, the Western Cape had an annualised trading density of R48 365 per square metre. KwaZulu-Natal showed the next highest level of R43 468 per square metre. Gauteng had the lowest trading density of the three key provinces at R40 169 per square metre.

Clur says what has emerged in the second quarter of 2025 is a balance in growth rates between trading densities and base rents. “In this respect the market is now in sync for the first time in years and so landlords and retailers are on a level playing field.”

The Q2 2025 national Clur Index for Base Rent closed at R236.59 per square metre, with year-on-year growth of 4.3%, outperforming June 2025’s CPI by 1.3%. Highest base rentals were shown by super-regional and regional shopping centres at R320.86 per square metre and R231.34 per square metre respectively.

Top year-on-year growth in base rentals was shown by regional centres at 5%, and super-regionals at 4.7%, outperforming CPI by 2% and 1.7% respectively. All retail size formats grew positively and outperformed CPI.

The Western Cape showed the highest base rent and year-on-year growth rate of R259.38 per square metre and 5.6%, outperforming CPI by 2.6%. KwaZulu-Natal showed the next highest growth rate of 4.5%, outperforming CPI by 1.5%, supported by a rental rate of R244.84 per square metre. Gauteng follows with a level of R236.51 per square metre and 3.8% year-on-year growth, also outperforming CPI by 0.8%.

The national Clur Index for the annualised base rent to sales ratio came in at 6.6% in June 2025, showing ongoing stability and controlled risk.

Super-regional centres had the highest rent to sales ratio of 7.2%, with regionals following at 6.9%. Community and smaller centres showed the lowest level of 4.8%.

Of the three major provinces, Gauteng had the highest rent to sales ratio of 6.8%, followed by KwaZulu-Natal at 6.5% and the Western Cape at 6.1%. “The rule of thumb being, that the lower the ratio, the lower the risk,” says Clur.

“The alignment between rents and trading densities has come after some dramatic shifts in society, shopping centre performance levels and responses in centre concepts.”

“Shopping centres have moved with the times. Within the last decade, strategic concepts evolved from a ‘chameleon’ to a ‘hybrid’ to an ‘enlightened’ and now to a ‘trusted’ shopping centre positioning.”

“The pre-pandemic chameleon centre marked a move to fluid rather than fixed formats, comprising an ever-changing, high impact and interactive experiential environment. The hybrid centre took this further during the Covid-ravaged years. At this time, trading densities and rentals plunged, and the rent to sales ratio soared. Accordingly, this concept embraced the need for a new agile mixed-use format including retail, storage warehousing and showrooms.”

Clur said the post-pandemic enlightened shopping centre saw trading densities and rentals improving and the rent to sales ratio dropping. It celebrated humanity, providing a safe accepting space for personal expression, evoking a sense of ease and belonging.

“The current trusted shopping centre positioning has distilled as Covid-induced volatility has balanced, and the Belief Economy has emerged as the Attention Economy fades. Meaningful values, sincerity and truth are now prioritized over excessive exposure and deception in the age of social media and artificial intelligence. Consumers have outgrown superficial seduction via aggressive broad-based promotional activity and now crave something real. Trusted emotional and human connection has become the new currency.”