Residential property market’s recovery driven by sustained decline in new housing stock

Residential house price growth accelerated in May 2025, primarily driven by the middle-to-upper priced segments while growth in the lower-priced segments was stable.
According to FNB Economist, Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, the market’s recovery can be primarily attributed to supply contraction – the sustained decline in new housing stock, in alignment with weak sentiment and economic conditions.
Year-to-date, the volume of newly completed homes is down 14% following annual declines of 7.4% in 2024 and 25.9% in 2023.
Stats SA’s rental market continues to reflect relatively subdued demand, with rental inflation averaging just 2.9% in Q1 2025 – unchanged from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, following a consistent downward trend since Q4 2023, apartment vacancy rates edged up to 6.7% in Q1 2025 from 6% according to Rode data.
While rental market conditions vary significantly across the major cities, most regions are experiencing strengthening demand-supply dynamics, except for Gauteng’s metros (Johannesburg and Pretoria) where the market ‘softened’ in Q1 2025.