Up next

Trump election bets propel gold to record heights

Trump election bets propel gold to record heights

Former US President Donald Trump. (James Devaney/GC Images/Getty)
Former US President Donald Trump. (James Devaney/GC Images/Getty)

Global stocks kicked off the week on the back foot on Monday, after strong gains last week, while increasing bets on Donald Trump winning the looming US presidential election helped send bitcoin and gold to new peaks.

Heightened uncertainty over conflict in the Middle East added to the appeal of gold, which hit new record highs of around $2 733 an ounce.

Hundreds of Beirut residents fled their homes late on Sunday, as Israel prepared to attack sites linked to the financial operations of Lebanon's Hezbollah group, propping up oil on worries over supply disruption.

The JSE's All-Share index ended the day marginally lower, while Gold Fields (+5%), Harmony (+4%), Sibanye (+4%), DRDGold (+3%) and AngloGold (+3%) rallied.

It is a busy earnings week on both sides of the Atlantic. Major results this week include Deutsche Bank, Barclays, while a quarter of S&P 500 companies will post results including Tesla, Boeing and IBM.

"Earnings will be very important in giving direction to stocks - whether or not current US valuations can be justified," said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets in London.

The economic calendar gets is busier in the latter half of the week, with US and European business activity data for October and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey due out.

With two weeks to go before the November 5 US election, bets reflecting a Donald Trump victory were on the rise and gaining market attention.

The Republican candidate's tariff, tax and immigration policies are seen as inflationary, negative for bonds and positive for the dollar. Trump is expected to take a more favourable stance towards cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin retreated after hitting its highest since late July at around $69,487. The world's largest cryptocurrency gained almost 10% last week, and is up more than 8% for the month.

"With clear policy statements supporting crypto from the (Kamala) Harris campaign, the market seems less worried about downside," said Gautam Chhugani, global digital assets analyst at Bernstein, referring to the US vice president.

Sterling and the euro were down about 0.2% each against the dollar, while the US currency crossed the 150 mark against the yen and was last up 0.25% on the day.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against a basket of peers, was last up 0.16% at 103.61 - not far more than two-month highs hit last week.

The rand was slightly weaker at R17.63/$.

"Candidates can have preferences for different industries but where rubber meets the road, it's almost impossible to predict what can actually get accomplished," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist of B. Riley Wealth Management.

"The dollar is much more a reflection of the better economic data and the perception of what the Fed is going to do has tapered back," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist of B. Riley Wealth Management, explaining the dollar's moves.

In bond markets, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.13% - its highest since late July. Two-year yields increased 3 bps to 3.99%.

China watching

Meanwhile, optimism over Beijing's slew of stimulus measures first announced late in September has turned into caution in recent days as investors look to further details of more fiscal support from policymakers.

Although China cut its benchmark lending rates on Monday, the move was anticipated. China's blue-chip index .CSI300 ended 0.3% higher.

"We might have to wait until late October or early November for concrete plans from the Standing Committee meeting of the National People's Congress," said Chaoping Zhu, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Shanghai.

Oil prices jumped following a more than 7% drop last week on worries about demand in China and an easing of concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were last up 1.83% at $74.4 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 rose 2.15% to $70.71.

And elsewhere, silver scaled a near 12-year peak, riding bullion's rally. It was last up 1% at $34 per ounce.

Newsletter

For Subscriber

Weekly

Business Briefing

A deep dive into the big business story of the week, as well as expert analysis of markets and trends.

Sign up

We live in a world where facts and fiction get blurred

Who we choose to trust can have a profound impact on our lives. Join thousands of devoted South Africans who look to News24 to bring them news they can trust every day. As we celebrate 25 years, become a News24 subscriber as we strive to keep you informed, inspired and empowered.

Powered by
3D Issue